It’s a terrifying word: recession. It evokes words like looming and feels like an impending storm. Is one coming? Are retail suppliers ready for it? 

Here’s what we know so far:

On April 15, 2025, J.P. Morgan Research reported¹ a 60% probability of a recession, and on April 30, the Commerce Department announced a GDP reversal² as it shrank by 0.3% annually last quarter. Consumer confidence³ has fallen to a 13-year low, largely due to job market fears and concerns surrounding the stock market. One senior economist found that “48.5% [of those polled are] expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months.”

There is quite a bit of volatility in consumer spending as a result. Due to the fear of price increases from tariffs, consumers began panic-buying⁴ items such as luxury skincare goods from South Korea, and pre-tariff spending boosted import sales⁵ by 27.5% in March. Meanwhile, discretionary spending⁶ is down, and more consumers are turning to private brands⁷.

While jobs remain steady⁸, with unemployment at 4.2%⁹, small businesses in particular are feeling the pinch¹⁰ of the trade war. In addition, the supply chain is reeling¹¹, and stockouts are high¹² as U.S. ports begin to see significant drops in cargo. Ships from China to the U.S. have dropped 65% since the tariff announcement, and the Port of Los Angeles is expecting one-third fewer arrivals year-over-year in the next week. Further, Amazon sellers are opting out of Prime Day¹³ in an effort to save on costs and keep revenue steady, and UPS is cutting 20,000 jobs¹⁴ after coming to an agreement with the online retailer to reduce its shipping volume.

What can retail suppliers do to stay in business in the face of a possible recession? Building a resilient supply chain is a good first step. Also, Modern Retail suggests cutting “the corporate speak”¹⁵ in your customer communications, with one brand saying they wanted to “be real with the community.” Finally, stay in touch with your retailers, particularly about retail media¹⁶, as many economists and marketing experts see this channel as less volatile than social media or other traditional channels.

We found that many retail suppliers are losing 3–8% of their revenue in invalid deductions, which you can dispute. Talk to us today to find out how much you can recover so that you can reinvest in your business and weather the coming storm.